Gaming Iowa Expectations

December 13, 2011

John Ellis says that Newt Gingrich will ultimately under-perform expectations in Iowa "because he does not have a substantial statewide organization" and "he doesn't have any money to buy telemarketing services."

However, Ron Paul "has a substantial field organization and so is likely to somewhat over-perform in the actual balloting."

The key for Mitt Romney "is for Paul to out-perform and for Gingrich to under-perform. This sets up a press narrative of the Gingrich souffle. The Newtster rose and then he fell. The normal laws of political gravity apply. Unstated conclusion: Gingrich is doomed. This is exactly the narrative that Romney needs going into New Hampshire."

Source: http://politicalwire.com/archives/2011/12/13/gaming_iowa_expectations.html

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